Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdabf…845b other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%15W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$3
politics 22% −$7
sports 10% +$53
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 +5.9% -4.2% 16% 13% -9.4%
all 93 +5.9% -4.2% 16% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 13% -9.4%
10% -13.3% 13% -18.0%
15% -21.7% 10% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage86d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $194 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $292 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $266 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $293 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $569 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $330 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $812 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $508 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $335 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $194 39h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 22d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 27d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 28d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 29d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 29d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 30d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $33 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $270 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.69 · official $193.69 (match) · 266 history records