Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdabb…f07a other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$35
sports 22% −$21
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage129d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $282 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $287 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $98 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $164 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 3h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 10h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 11h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 12h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 14h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 18h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 21h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 25h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 32h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 34h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 39h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1378 history records