Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DA 0xdaba…a787 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$77 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%29W / 14L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$83
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$11
sports 9% +$72
other 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.3% +8.0% 55% 55% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 33% -8.7%
≤90d 43 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 26% -9.1%
all 43 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 26% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 26% -9.1%
10% -7.7% 23% -17.8%
15% -16.6% 23% -25.7%
20% -24.8% 23% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses29 / 14
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage50d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 20 $2,688 −$4 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$16 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$42 +344%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,601 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 07 $400 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $302 +$6 +2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4,082 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? May 30 $390 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 26 $390 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 08 $99 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 6 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 03 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $97 +$3 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $5 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $800 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $12 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $400 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $400 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $300 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $25 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $12 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 8d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $12 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 8d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $12 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $300 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $12 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $390 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $390 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $398 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $398 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $399 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.49 · official $13.49 (match) · 168 history records