Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xdab8…fabd other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,246 (-1%) realized −$1,246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$826per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$272
politics 39% −$53
sports 6% −$937
culture 4% −$7
economics 2% −$3
world 2% +$9
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -10.7%
all 135 -0.9% -10.4% 21% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 12% -10.6%
10% -18.9% 11% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 9% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,255) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,433
Realized−$1,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage156d
Avg bet$826
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $817 $818 +$0 (+0%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $616 $615 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $419 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,728 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,324 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,617 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $420 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $627 +$2 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $1,032 +$3 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,397 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,956 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,264 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,349 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,333 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,246 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,466 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $3,135 −$3 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $1,143 −$1,143 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,824 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,209 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $1,882 −$2 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $2,708 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $616 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $419 4h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $696 22h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $697 24h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $818 26h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,258 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,260 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,452 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,454 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,262 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,264 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,220 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,222 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,623 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,625 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,548 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,550 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $503 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $504 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,053 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,164 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,290 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,292 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,515 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,518 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,433.25 · official $1,433.25 (match) · 418 history records