Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdab3…79b1 crypto 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-3%) realized −$109 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%278W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$48
14 days−$121
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$14
sports 24% −$14
other 20% −$92
world 17% +$70
politics 7% −$18
weather 5% −$116
finance 2% +$3
tech 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 37% -17.0%
≤30d 641 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 39% -13.6%
≤90d 641 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 39% -13.6%
all 641 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 39% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -21.9%
15% -31.1% 28% -29.4%
20% -37.9% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses278 / 363
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)641 / 650
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 42¢ 97¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+135%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 69¢ 60¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 37¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 58¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 37¢ 60¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+64%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 29¢ 58¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+102%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 37¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 53¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 32¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +126%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +477%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$11 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.89 · official $49.56 · 1892 history records