Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaa4…b94a politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$17
other 8% +$7
sports 6% −$34
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 39 -10.4% -18.9% 18% 8% -11.6%
all 50 -8.2% -16.9% 20% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 6% -10.2%
10% -24.9% 6% -18.8%
15% -32.1% 4% -26.6%
20% -38.8% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage617d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 +$5 +90%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $35 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $130 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,212 −$9 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,765 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,721 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 41h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 42h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $8 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.61 · official $31.61 (match) · 329 history records