Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xdaa3…cf5a sports 826 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$393 (+1%) realized +$393 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate93%769W / 56L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$12
14 days+$47
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$201
crypto 24% +$140
world 5% +$33
other 2% +$1
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.3% -23.3% 76% 12% -11.0%
≤30d 112 -8.4% -17.1% 82% 21% -7.2%
≤90d 465 -1.4% -10.7% 91% 18% -8.1%
all 825 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 16% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 8% -17.2%
15% -25.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses769 / 56
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)825 / 826
History coverage191d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 $0 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $14 +$1 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 24 $16 −$3 -21%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$2 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +16%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $53 +$36 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $45 +$5 +10%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$1 +3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $12 +$2 +17%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $28 +$2 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$1 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $27 +$3 +10%
England leading at halftime? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $125 +$5 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 +$7 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$5 +6%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $9 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 4h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $5 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $9 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $7 25h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $10 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $0 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 47h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 98¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $53 3d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.48 · official $94.48 (match) · 2311 history records