Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaa2…9b80 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-21%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
sports 32% +$2
world 7% −$2
tech 6% −$1
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
politics 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +276.3% +240.4% 100% 100% +240.4%
≤30d 5 +82.6% +65.2% 80% 80% +38.9%
≤90d 10 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% -2.6%
all 22 -44.5% -49.7% 23% 23% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 23% -40.3%
10% -54.6% 23% -46.0%
15% -58.9% 23% -51.2%
20% -63.0% 18% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)22 / 36
History coverage106d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$2 +209%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $6 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 53¢ $3 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 25d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 37d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 38d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 50d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 54d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 84d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 45¢ $1 88d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY No 40¢ $1 91d
Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? BUY No 62¢ $1 91d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 36¢ $1 91d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 91d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $1 91d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $1 96d
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 97d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 19¢ $1 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.13 · official $22.14 (match) · 51 history records