trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +32.7% | +20.1% | 100% | 100% | +20.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -52.6% | -57.1% | 15% | 15% | -57.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -52.6% | -57.1% | 15% | 15% | -57.4% |
| all | 13 | -52.6% | -57.1% | 15% | 15% | -57.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -57.1% | 15% | -57.4% |
| 10% | -61.2% | 15% | -61.5% |
| 15% | -65.0% | 8% | -65.2% |
| 20% | -68.4% | 8% | -68.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $54 | +$4 (+8%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $167 | $42 | −$125 (-75%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $27 | $26 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-18%) |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $9 | $6 | −$3 (-35%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 6¢ | $9 | $2 | −$6 (-73%) |
| Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-58%) |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +33% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 09 | $13 | +$43 | +338% |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju | Jun 03 | $5 | −$2 | -54% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? | Jun 03 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? | Jun 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2? | Jun 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? | Jun 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? | Jun 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? | Jun 03 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? | Jun 03 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? | Jun 03 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |