Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda9f…1e32 politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$5
politics 20% $0
sports 15% $0
world 12% $0
finance 9% −$1
crypto 9% −$26
economics 8% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.7%
all 33 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -12.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -21.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -28.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage305d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $86 −$5 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $75 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? Aug 22 $42 −$26 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Aug 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August? Aug 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $43 4h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $40 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $10 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $19 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 59¢ $14 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 59¢ $26 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 59¢ $2 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $15 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $23 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $5 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 29d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 97¢ $23 299d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $23 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records