Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda9e…404a politics 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,465 (-1%) realized −$2,465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%34W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,262per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$46
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$135
other 28% −$320
sports 17% −$2,135
culture 2% −$5
world 2% −$50
economics 2% −$4
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +2.2% -7.6% 10% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -12.3% -20.6% 8% 5% -12.1%
all 159 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 10% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 10% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 9% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,895) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$31 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$2,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses34 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,262
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,682 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,794 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,954 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,946 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,570 −$7 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,521 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $899 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,640 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,759 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $65 +$37 +57%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $625 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $45 +$60 +134%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $321 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,415 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,943 −$3 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $981 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $717 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $692 35m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $693 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $696 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $697 4h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $696 6h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $697 7h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $699 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $700 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $698 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $699 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $701 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $702 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $698 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $700 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $548 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $548 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $703 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $704 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $470 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $471 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $603 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $604 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $638 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $639 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $703 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $704 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $707 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $708 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $709 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $710 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.33 · official $183.33 (match) · 516 history records