Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda9e…5f8b
world · 76 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses30 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage480d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $123 +$5 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $123 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $59 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $168 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $379 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $281 +$4 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,172 −$4 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $130 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $79 −$26 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $36 −$17 -48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $152 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $5 −$1 -21%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $4 −$1 -17%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $1,126 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,024 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 15 $17 $0 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% −$32
other 25% +$2
politics 2% $0
sports 2% +$7
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $128 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $141 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $141 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $124 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $5 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $123 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $124 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $123 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $63 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $59 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 87¢ $119 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $97 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $119 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $119 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $131 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $130 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $48 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $130 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $131 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $118 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $119 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $130 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $130 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $118 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $131 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $131 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $63 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 86% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 20 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 25 -3.8% -13.0% 32% 0% -10.0%
all 75 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.20 · official $127.20 (match) · 216 history records