Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda9e…7b03 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$753 (+42%) realized +$734 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$678
other 20% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 64% +36.2%
≤30d 11 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 64% +36.2%
≤90d 11 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 64% +36.2%
all 11 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 64% +36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 64% +36.2%
10% +9.1% 64% +23.2%
15% -1.5% 64% +11.3%
20% -11.1% 64% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$73 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized+$734
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 76¢ $200 $273 +$73 (+37%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$105 +51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $256 +$234 +91%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 +$212 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $181 −$181 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 −$18 -34%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $78 +$115 +147%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $131 +$91 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 +$162 +157%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$82 +80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 5m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $205 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $204 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $103 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $154 20h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $205 43h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 35¢ $35 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $193 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $222 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $29 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $22 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $43 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $73 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $100 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $265 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $24 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $81 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $35 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $18 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $58 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $103 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $185 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $102 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.47 · official $435.26 · 31 history records