Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda9c…0639 crypto 497 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$441 (-7%) realized −$440 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate78%385W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$399
sports 10% −$136
other 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.8% -39.2% 25% 25% -31.6%
≤30d 4 -32.8% -39.2% 25% 25% -31.6%
≤90d 496 -5.2% -14.3% 78% 27% -17.0%
all 496 -5.2% -14.3% 78% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 27% -17.0%
10% -22.5% 11% -25.0%
15% -30.0% 4% -32.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses385 / 111
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)496 / 497
History coverage63d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$88 +169%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $9 +$2 +18%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 May 03 $20 +$1 +6%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) Apr 30 $2 $0 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $2 +$3 +117%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Apr 29 $10 +$6 +59%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1AM ET Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $6 +$1 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 Apr 28 $14 +$11 +79%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Apr 28 $22 +$63 +291%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 28 $6 $0 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $42 −$5 -13%
Huzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Yexin Ma Apr 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 27 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 27 $28 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6PM ET Apr 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Apr 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 26 $3 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Apr 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 26 $115 +$2 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Apr 26 $20 +$5 +28%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 26 $14 +$8 +57%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 26 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 26 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 26 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $16 +$3 +20%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 26 $16 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 26 $16 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $16 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 26 $15 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 44d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 44d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 44d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 44d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 44d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 84¢ $9 45d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY New York Mets 40¢ $3 45d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY New York Mets 40¢ $5 45d
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $11 45d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Raptors 61¢ $11 48d
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) BUY Magic 86¢ $2 48d
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 48d
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $9 48d
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $3 48d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $37 48d
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $2 49d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 5¢ $1 49d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 23¢ $1 49d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Angels 0¢ $150 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 50d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 90¢ $6 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.09 (match) · 1120 history records