Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda9b…14b5 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$734 (+103%) realized +$831 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +470% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +415% what you keep after slip
Net edge+415%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$214
sports 28% +$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+415.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +469.7% +415.4% 60% 60% +99.6%
≤30d 5 +469.7% +415.4% 60% 60% +99.6%
≤90d 5 +469.7% +415.4% 60% 60% +99.6%
all 5 +469.7% +415.4% 60% 60% +99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +415.4% 60% +99.6%
10% +366.1% 60% +80.5%
15% +321.1% 60% +63.0%
20% +279.8% 60% +47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +121% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +470% · $-wt +121% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$150 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $103 +$612 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $190 +$208 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$208 +1843%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $87 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $190 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 10 history records