Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda9a…8126 other 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$37
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$5
culture 8% −$10
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage127d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $469 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $483 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $140 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $293 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $818 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $284 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $353 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $416 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $402 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $486 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 11m
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 4h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 6h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 7h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 13h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 14h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 16h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 21h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 22h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 26h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 28h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 30h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 33h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 35h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 38h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 39h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.96 · official $47.96 (match) · 1312 history records