Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda99…311f world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
politics 17% +$1
other 13% +$1
finance 8% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.4% -5.6% 44% 11% -7.4%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 5% -9.1%
all 38 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage429d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $45 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $15 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 24 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $6 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $15 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $21 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $20 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $43.24 (match) · 120 history records