Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda98…f432 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 34% −$2
politics 22% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage330d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $47 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $46 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 29? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 31 $49 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $47 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $47 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $41 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $2 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $16 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $27 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $52 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $52 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records