Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DA 0xda94…461c crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-7%) realized −$228 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%92W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$196
14 days−$197
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$407
other 11% +$184
sports 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -2.1% -11.5% 61% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 201 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 201 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 44% -15.5%
all 201 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -15.5%
10% -19.0% 39% -23.6%
15% -26.8% 38% -31.0%
20% -34.0% 33% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses92 / 109
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)201 / 209
History coverage23d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$5 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$49 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$26 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$22 +181%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France Jun 22 $21 −$14 -69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$75 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$9 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$9 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$17 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $26 +$86 +334%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$12 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$6 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $51 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $37 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $27 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 13¢ $21 28h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France SELL 3¢ $6 28h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France BUY 9¢ $21 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will N BUY 13¢ $21 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 44¢ $51 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 44¢ $51 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.97 · official $118.98 · 376 history records