Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda91…d760 weather 852 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$412 (+3%) realized +$404 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%285W / 717L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day78.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$1,784
sports 16% +$852
crypto 0% −$13
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -75.9% -78.2% 11% 11% -72.9%
≤30d 665 -28.3% -35.2% 28% 27% -36.8%
≤90d 1002 -12.3% -20.6% 28% 28% -27.6%
all 1002 -12.3% -20.6% 28% 28% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 28% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -34.5%
15% -35.1% 27% -40.9%
20% -41.5% 26% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$404
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses285 / 717
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1002 / 852
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day78.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4? Jun 20 $7 −$9 -143%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 14? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 13? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 4? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on February 12 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on April 4? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ma Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on April 1 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 53m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 5¢ $5 12h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $6 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $9 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 40¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 15h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 46¢ $23 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 11¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $100 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 44¢ $44 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.25 · official $95.75 (match) · 3500 history records