Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda8b…8663 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+5%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$19
other 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 70% 30% -24.7%
≤30d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 70% 30% -24.7%
≤90d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 70% 30% -24.7%
all 10 -19.1% -26.8% 70% 30% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 30% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 10% -31.9%
15% -40.2% 10% -38.4%
20% -46.1% 10% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 +$10 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $4 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $11 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $8 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $5.02 (match) · 39 history records