Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda8b…e7e8 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$29 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$114per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+13.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+25.3%	+13.4%	100%	100%	+13.4%
≤30d	1	+25.3%	+13.4%	100%	100%	+13.4%
≤90d	1	+25.3%	+13.4%	100%	100%	+13.4%
all	1	+25.3%	+13.4%	100%	100%	+13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.4%	100%	+13.4%
10%	+2.5%	100%	+2.5%
15%	-7.4%	0%	-7.4%
20%	-16.5%	0%	-16.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$212

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage10d

Avg bet$114

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$131	$130	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$100	$82	−$18 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 15	$106	+$27	+25%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$133	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	79¢	$106	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.04 · official $212.04 (match) · 14 history records