Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda89…0ed5 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$252 (+13%) realized +$209 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$280
14 days+$280
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$39
other 23% +$189
world 8% +$128
crypto 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.2% -7.6% 46% 40% +7.4%
≤30d 58 +3.3% -6.5% 47% 41% +8.8%
≤90d 58 +3.3% -6.5% 47% 41% +8.8%
all 58 +3.3% -6.5% 47% 41% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 41% +8.8%
10% -15.5% 33% -1.6%
15% -23.6% 31% -11.1%
20% -31.1% 29% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)58 / 69
History coverage18d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 59¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 7¢ 25¢ $20 $71 +$51 (+256%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 +$56 +181%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$26 +128%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 +$78 +507%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 +$38 +187%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $61 +$159 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$19 +77%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $61 +$35 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $28 +$62 +223%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$54 +53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$16 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$17 -84%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$57 +185%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 +$96 +189%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $48 +$37 +76%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $64 −$62 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$42 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $59 −$38 -64%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $33 +$25 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 41¢ $86 1m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 31¢ $47 7m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 9m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 50m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 50m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 50m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 51m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 51m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 51m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 52m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-1 BUY 14¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 63¢ $93 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 36¢ $59 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 25¢ $26 7h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $81 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.11 · official $163.68 · 123 history records