Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda89…6a2d sports 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$169 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%161W / 8L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$507
other 38% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 1% -9.7%
≤30d 169 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 1% -9.7%
all 169 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$336 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6,830
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses161 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions10
Markets (closed)169 / 180
History coverage7d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,618 $1,650 +$32 (+2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,618 $1,635 +$17 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $1,618 $1,634 +$16 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $706 $726 +$20 (+3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? No 99¢ 100¢ $448 $453 +$5 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $393 $399 +$6 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? No 99¢ 100¢ $203 $205 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? No 99¢ 100¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,507 −$1,507 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $1,508 +$68 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,508 +$56 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $993 +$49 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $671 +$16 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $993 +$30 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $925 −$152 -16%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,022 −$102 -10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $533 +$5 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,508 +$65 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $993 +$48 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $370 −$28 -8%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $76 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $706 +$26 +4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1,872 +$41 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $707 +$23 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,194 +$12 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $237 +$2 +1%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $250 +$13 +5%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $515 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $318 +$16 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $545 +$5 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1,365 +$27 +2%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $464 +$5 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $136 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $131 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,534 +$15 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $163 +$2 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $126 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,534 +$15 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,525 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $590 +$6 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $533 +$11 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $176 +$3 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,428 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,525 +$48 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $844 +$8 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $375 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $393 12m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $119 12m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $1,619 12m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,618 12m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $706 12m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $1,619 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $448 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 99¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $993 7h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $15 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $993 7h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 95¢ $993 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 71¢ $186 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $42 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $61 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $17 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $32 8h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 91¢ $341 8h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 90¢ $472 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 83¢ $387 9h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $104 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $533 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $671 9h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 97¢ $1,022 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $925 9h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $370 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $1,508 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,829.73 · official $6,829.73 (match) · 358 history records