Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda88…4fd7 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$174 (+13%) realized +$221 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$180
14 days+$334
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$76
sports 17% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 67% +21.4%
≤30d 11 +64.6% +48.9% 73% 73% +44.2%
≤90d 21 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +13.6%
all 21 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% +13.6%
10% -20.9% 43% +2.8%
15% -28.5% 43% -7.2%
20% -35.5% 43% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$29 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage60d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $276 $237 −$39 (-14%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 28¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$82 +101%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$63 +136%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$34 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$31 +146%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$110 +109%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $51 +$154 +302%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $35 +$30 +84%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $10 +$11 +109%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $37 −$32 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $71 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $41 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $81 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $53 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $21 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 7d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $59 7d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 20d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 26d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 31d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 40d
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the BUY Yes 36¢ $15 40d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.55 · official $499.56 (match) · 121 history records