Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda86…6ff9 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,721 (-19%) realized −$2,732 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$310
14 days−$501
30 days−$1,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1,904
crypto 14% −$614
other 8% +$250
politics 5% −$300
world 4% −$211
finance 1% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 31% -48.6%
≤30d 20 -54.1% -58.5% 25% 25% -69.0%
≤90d 34 -42.1% -47.6% 32% 32% -48.2%
all 123 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 40% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 40% -26.8%
10% -22.3% 39% -33.8%
15% -29.8% 38% -40.2%
20% -36.7% 34% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$103 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized−$2,732
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 69
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions7
Markets (closed)123 / 131
History coverage110d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $150 $183 +$33 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $131 $147 +$16 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $34 +$40 +118%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $33 +$26 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $65 −$63 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 +$69 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherla Jun 15 $41 +$21 +51%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $139 −$137 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $111 +$134 +121%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $276 −$271 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $210 −$206 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $221 −$217 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $113 −$111 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $221 −$217 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 09 $129 −$128 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 09 $99 +$111 +112%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 09 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $116 −$113 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Mar 30 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Mar 30 $113 +$83 +74%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 30 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 30 $320 +$57 +18%
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) Mar 30 $116 −$116 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) Mar 29 $125 +$148 +118%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 29 $195 +$113 +58%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $113 +$82 +72%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $342 −$342 -100%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 20 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $434 −$434 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Mar 17 $115 +$136 +118%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Mar 17 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $100 +$54 +54%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) Mar 16 $582 +$312 +54%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $227 +$355 +156%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 16 $263 −$259 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 16 $247 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 16 $76 +$172 +226%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 16 $50 −$9 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $74 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $34 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 47¢ $25 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $59 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $33 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 27¢ $24 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $65 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $71 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $26 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $144 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 5d
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 33¢ $26 6d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 46¢ $139 6d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 18¢ $10 6d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 46¢ $50 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherla BUY 65¢ $41 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $245 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $111 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $55 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $135 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.83 · official $526.83 (match) · 332 history records