Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda85…98e6 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$170 (+31%) realized +$140 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+55.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+71.8%	+55.4%	100%	100%	+55.4%
≤30d	1	+71.8%	+55.4%	100%	100%	+55.4%
≤90d	1	+71.8%	+55.4%	100%	100%	+55.4%
all	1	+71.8%	+55.4%	100%	100%	+55.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+55.4%	100%	+55.4%
10%	+40.5%	100%	+40.5%
15%	+27.0%	100%	+27.0%
20%	+14.5%	100%	+14.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +72% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$144 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage

Net worth$314

Realized+$140

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage74d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	50¢	60¢	$210	$252	+$42 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	11¢	$33	$22	−$12 (-35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$20	$21	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	21¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Jun 26	$200	+$144	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$21	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$41	1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	95¢	$344	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$100	73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	50¢	$200	73d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	55¢	$200	73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	74d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.08 · official $314.08 (match) · 82 history records