Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda81…d086 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$51 (+19%) realized +$52 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+11.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+23.7%	+11.9%	50%	50%	+17.9%
≤30d	2	+23.7%	+11.9%	50%	50%	+17.9%
≤90d	2	+23.7%	+11.9%	50%	50%	+17.9%
all	2	+23.7%	+11.9%	50%	50%	+17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.9%	50%	+17.9%
10%	+1.2%	50%	+6.6%
15%	-8.6%	50%	-3.7%
20%	-17.6%	0%	-13.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$0 · ×184.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×184.37 per $1 lost it wins $184.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized+$52

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	No	93¢	92¢	$57	$56	−$1 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	No	98¢	96¢	$53	$52	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$59	$0	-0%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$104	+$50	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	BUY No	98¢	$53	43m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	BUY No	93¢	$57	1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	96¢	$59	22h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$59	41h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$104	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.80 · official $107.80 (match) · 6 history records