Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda7a…b0b7 world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%33W / 56L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$3
other 20% +$3
sports 13% $0
politics 13% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 2% -9.6%
all 89 -0.8% -10.3% 37% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses33 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage492d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $42 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $76 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $85 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $31 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $75 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$1 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $190 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $14 −$1 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 66¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $41 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $41 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $3 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $11 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $21 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $15 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $19 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.17 (match) · 348 history records