Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda78…65ec world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 11% +$4
other 3% −$2
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 26 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 4% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage473d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $3 −$2 -88%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 21 $6 $0 +1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 21 $7 $0 +5%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $13 $0 +1%
Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $4 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $12 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $10 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $4 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $6 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $20 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $4 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $41 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 182d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $9 356d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 387d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $9 401d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City SELL No 99¢ $4 402d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.29 · official $36.29 (match) · 83 history records