Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda72…21c4 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$60 (-15%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -26.1%
≤30d 14 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -26.1%
≤90d 14 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -26.1%
all 14 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 29% -26.1%
10% -53.5% 29% -33.1%
15% -58.0% 21% -39.6%
20% -62.1% 21% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $42 +$15 +35%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $35 +$23 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $14 +$16 +109%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $69 −$13 -19%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $43 +$45 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $34 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $16 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $9 43h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $33 45h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $7 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $5 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $9 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $35 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $14 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $14 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $20 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $30 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $44 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $27 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $25 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $17 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $21 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $18 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.10 · official $48.10 (match) · 33 history records