Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda71…e54f other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$663 (-23%) realized −$666 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 75% -29.7%
≤30d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 75% -29.7%
≤90d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 75% -29.7%
all 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 75% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 75% -29.7%
10% -10.0% 50% -36.4%
15% -18.7% 33% -42.5%
20% -26.7% 17% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$515 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 80¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$44 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $121 +$69 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $340 +$43 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $400 +$9 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $223 +$47 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$53 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $922 −$920 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $183 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $400 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $111 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $201 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $223 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $107 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.25 · official $103.25 (match) · 28 history records