Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda70…9fe3 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate75%49W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$18
sports 23% −$20
politics 21% +$13
world 9% +$13
culture 4% −$19
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.3% +4.4% 100% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 15 +4.5% -5.5% 87% 27% -5.2%
≤90d 65 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 26% -9.0%
all 65 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 26% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -9.0%
10% -22.0% 17% -17.7%
15% -29.5% 8% -25.6%
20% -36.4% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses49 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage79d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 22 $43 $0 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $51 +$7 +15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $13 +$8 +61%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 08 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 08 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 03 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 02 $20 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $20 −$5 -27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $14 −$4 -29%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? May 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $12 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -92%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $10 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 23 $4 $0 +3%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $24 −$13 -54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $7 +$2 +24%
Madrid Open: Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher Apr 21 $20 −$18 -88%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 21 $24 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 21 $24 $0 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $20 +$2 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 1h
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $19 44h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $12 44h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $13 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $20 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $78 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 14d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 67¢ $14 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Athletics 90¢ $10 17d
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Coleman Wong 75¢ $5 20d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? SELL No 95¢ $19 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 21d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $25 22d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 95¢ $24 37d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 36¢ $15 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $10 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $14 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.26 · official $100.26 (match) · 133 history records