Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda6f…cc8f
world · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage298d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $91 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $74 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $60 +$3 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $13 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $64 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $21 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$1
politics 25% $0
other 19% $0
sports 11% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 -1.8% -11.2% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -1.3% -10.7% 28% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.69 · official $13.69 (match) · 332 history records