Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda6b…20be sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33,250 (-17%) realized −$33,544 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 75L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,438per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,513
7 days+$800
14 days−$1,084
30 days−$1,084
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$34,273
other 17% +$2,613
crypto 1% −$1,475
world 0% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -14.9% -23.0% 48% 30% -5.6%
≤30d 38 -15.4% -23.4% 47% 32% -14.2%
≤90d 38 -15.4% -23.4% 47% 32% -14.2%
all 136 -8.0% -16.7% 45% 39% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -25.0%
10% -24.7% 35% -32.2%
15% -32.0% 32% -38.7%
20% -38.7% 26% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,767) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,050 vs −$1,297 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$2,794
Realized−$33,544
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage726d
Avg bet$1,438
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 97¢ $2,500 $2,794 +$294 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,408 +$123 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,316 +$91 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,023 +$293 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,952 +$71 +4%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,364 +$593 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,321 +$43 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,168 +$153 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $998 +$170 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $912 +$86 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $824 +$88 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $796 +$28 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $719 +$77 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$16 +509%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $198 +$187 +95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 16 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Oct 27 $480 −$480 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 27 $3,361 −$3,361 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $5,176 −$1,815 -35%
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 15 $3,010 +$302 +10%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 15 $844 +$50 +6%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 12 $1,470 +$411 +28%
Warriors vs. 76ers Mar 02 $24,444 −$24,444 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Feb 27 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz Feb 27 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Clippers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets Feb 27 $1,750 −$706 -40%
Celtics vs. Pistons Feb 27 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 85¢ $1,507 45m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $1,003 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $405 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $501 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $1,502 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $2,407 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $313 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $2,023 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,023 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,952 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $1,957 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $2 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $1,362 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $850 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $97 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $258 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $125 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,321 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $1,321 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $1,168 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $1,168 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $998 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $999 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,794.43 · official $2,805.98 (match) · 383 history records