Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda6a…9174 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
sports 38% +$2
other 19% −$9
finance 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 24 -1.8% -11.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 41 -0.7% -10.1% 34% 2% -9.5%
all 55 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage533d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $106 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $77 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $86 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $84 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $61 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $3 $0 -8%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +20%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $247 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $441 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $264 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $292 +$4 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $219 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $211 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Mar 04 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $38 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $31 38h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $9 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $23 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $18 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $23 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $16 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $16 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records