Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DA 0xda6a…4694 crypto 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,955 (-34%) realized −$25,949 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 118L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$16
14 days−$11
30 days−$14,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$5,516
other 23% −$14,454
sports 9% −$5,733
finance 8% +$139
politics 1% −$68
economics 0% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +23.7% +11.9% 38% 38% -8.7%
≤30d 208 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 47% -80.3%
≤90d 208 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 47% -80.3%
all 228 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 44% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 44% -40.1%
10% -19.8% 43% -45.8%
15% -27.6% 42% -51.0%
20% -34.7% 32% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$240 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$25,949
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)228 / 241
History coverage586d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $194 $190 −$4 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $50 +$100 +201%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $41 +$65 +158%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $38 +$60 +158%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $79 +$55 +70%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $132 −$50 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$46 +152%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 +$73 +357%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $107 −$60 -56%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$40 +388%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +873%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$58 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $168 −$165 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$52 +129%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $15 +$78 +510%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 +$80 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$92 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $196 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 10¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL 91¢ $150 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 29¢ $50 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 13¢ $15 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austr BUY $10 41h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 43h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 45h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria win on 2026- BUY 14¢ $15 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $41 45h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $79 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 3d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.70 · official $367.30 · 531 history records