Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda6a…02b7 world 58 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-25%) realized −$225 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day121.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$214
world 31% −$47
finance 6% −$12
other 4% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 42% -36.7%
≤30d 26 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 42% -36.7%
≤90d 26 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 42% -36.7%
all 26 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 42% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 42% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -42.8%
15% -34.6% 35% -48.3%
20% -41.0% 23% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$28 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions30
Markets (closed)26 / 58
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day121.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 91¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 62¢ 63¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 44¢ 36¢ $17 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 79¢ 98¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 58¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 68¢ 52¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 76¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+116%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-42%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 9¢ $10 $3 −$8 (-73%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 46¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$8 (-75%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 46¢ 16¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 51¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 48¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? No 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $90 −$35 -38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $69 +$29 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$17 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$18 +131%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$40 +131%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$24 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $7 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 36h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $6 37h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $7 38h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 40h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 40h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $2 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 18¢ $1 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 19¢ $1 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 21¢ $2 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 19¢ $1 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 67¢ $4 41h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 41h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $3 42h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 42h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $7 42h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $5 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 63¢ $4 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 51¢ $3 43h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.31 · official $191.10 (match) · 322 history records