Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda69…5984 crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-6%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%67W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$127
14 days−$382
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 50% -17.4%
≤30d 100 -12.1% -20.4% 48% 47% -19.2%
≤90d 137 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 48% -17.1%
all 137 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 48% -17.1%
10% -26.3% 48% -25.0%
15% -33.4% 48% -32.3%
20% -40.0% 48% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses67 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage70d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $57 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $57 +$48 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$62 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $53 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $48 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $54 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$36 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$38 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $54 +$35 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$39 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$34 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $57 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $53 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records