Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda68…d77f other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$698 (+6%) realized +$682 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%41W / 15L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days+$13
14 days−$7
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$201
other 25% +$121
sports 13% +$469
tech 8% −$45
economics 2% −$106
world 1% −$77
culture 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 71% 43% -8.8%
≤30d 9 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 33% -9.0%
≤90d 35 +16.6% +5.5% 77% 46% -0.8%
all 56 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 36% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 36% -3.8%
10% -17.3% 25% -13.0%
15% -25.3% 18% -21.4%
20% -32.6% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$2,009
Realized+$682
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses41 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)56 / 67
History coverage163d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $733 $774 +$40 (+5%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $586 $626 +$40 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $222 $221 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 84¢ $135 $131 −$4 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $25 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $48 $22 −$25 (-53%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 24¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 95¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 22¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $454 +$5 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 17 $582 −$27 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $148 +$64 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $238 +$29 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $132 +$35 +26%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,139 +$24 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $180 +$23 +13%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 05 $235 +$7 +3%
US bank failure by April 30? May 05 $252 +$40 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $959 +$43 +4%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 20 $77 +$15 +20%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $47 +$70 +149%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 07 $77 +$24 +31%
Spread: Torino FC (-2.5) Apr 06 $77 +$3 +4%
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5) Apr 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Apr 05 $77 +$2 +3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$32 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 05 $91 +$30 +32%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $77 +$59 +76%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$69 +90%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$84 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$122 +158%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$152 +197%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 03 $77 +$29 +38%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-05? Apr 01 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05? Apr 01 $77 −$76 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $147 +$9 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Apr 01 $182 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $333 +$15 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $240 −$55 -23%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $77 +$18 +24%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $999 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Feb 01 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? Feb 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 01 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 01 $300 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $420 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 19 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $136 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $224 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 99¢ $454 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $101 3h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $555 3h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 2d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 2d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 2d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 2d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $582 2d
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY No 95¢ $4 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $24 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $0 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 13d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $62 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $58 15d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $12 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 89¢ $238 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $148 15d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $591 15d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,162 15d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $738 42d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 42d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $235 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 94¢ $626 60d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 39¢ $47 71d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 83¢ $77 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,009.21 · official $2,009.22 (match) · 133 history records