Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda66…4aee weather 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$322 (-1%) realized −$322 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate87%268W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$61
14 days+$172
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$54
crypto 2% −$301
sports 1% −$28
other 1% −$29
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 23% -6.3%
≤30d 95 +5.6% -4.5% 95% 32% -4.2%
≤90d 267 +2.1% -7.7% 92% 25% -9.5%
all 307 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 26% -10.5%
10% -19.2% 8% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$48 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses268 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)307 / 311
History coverage234d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? No 87¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? No 89¢ 88¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 23? No 96¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? Jun 20 $155 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $164 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $188 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 +$18 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $145 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$17 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $108 +$26 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $139 +$30 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 6? Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $25 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $38 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $49 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $25 45h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 35¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $89 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.97 · official $134.24 (match) · 1028 history records