Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda60…758b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$554 (+6%) realized +$851 · open −$297

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$1,392per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$2,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$210

7 days−$580

14 days−$780

30 days−$345

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+12.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+53.1%	+38.5%	50%	50%	-68.4%
≤30d	4	+53.7%	+39.0%	50%	50%	-33.5%
≤90d	5	+22.9%	+11.2%	40%	40%	-40.8%
all	6	+24.3%	+12.5%	50%	50%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.5%	50%	+5.3%
10%	+1.7%	50%	-4.8%
15%	-8.1%	33%	-14.0%
20%	-17.1%	33%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$735 vs −$383 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage

Net worth$2,945

Realized+$851

Unrealized−$297

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage124d

Avg bet$1,392

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	71¢	64¢	$3,242	$2,945	−$297 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$102	+$210	+206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$795	−$790	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$204	−$200	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$209	+$435	+208%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	May 24	$163	−$159	-97%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	Feb 27	$4,997	+$1,559	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	32¢	$102	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	77¢	$795	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	30¢	$204	12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	65¢	$101	14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$31	14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	8¢	$10	14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	31¢	$67	14d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$163	36d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	71¢	$3,270	36d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	BUY No	81¢	$2,499	123d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	BUY No	72¢	$2,499	123d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,944.75 · official $2,944.75 (match) · 14 history records