Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda59…398c crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$327 (+24%) realized +$327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day147.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 30% -21.7%
≤30d 47 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 30% -21.7%
≤90d 47 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 30% -21.7%
all 47 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 30% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 30% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 28% -29.2%
15% -32.9% 23% -36.0%
20% -39.5% 17% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$16 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day147.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$21 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $76 +$91 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $317 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $105 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$216 +790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $88 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records