Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda58…4e79 weather 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+0%) realized +$124 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate89%590W / 73L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day122.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$87
14 days+$170
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$273
other 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 663 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 663 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 1% -9.4%
all 663 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.14 per $1 lost it wins $8.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$8,215
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses590 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)663 / 686
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$363
Trades / day122.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,006 $2,007 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,212 $1,212 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,047 $1,047 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $818 $819 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $711 $712 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $659 $659 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $412 $412 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $306 $306 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 84°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,705 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June Jun 15 $492 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $212 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $161 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $417 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $376 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $307 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $393 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,284 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $711 −$2 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $398 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $327 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $764 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $425 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $358 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $1,674 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,687 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June Jun 14 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1,686 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 14 $907 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $287 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $313 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $177 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 14 $835 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $757 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $247 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $659 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 84°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $90 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $84 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $93 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $59 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,215.38 · official $8,215.26 (match) · 3500 history records