Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda56…4176 weather 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-3%) realized −$38 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%41W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$49
14 days+$135
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$111
sports 1% +$14
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 47% -7.1%
≤30d 134 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 134 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 30% -10.5%
all 134 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 30% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 30% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 25% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses41 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)134 / 151
History coverage26d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $39 $100 +$61 (+157%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Yes 40¢ 74¢ $40 $74 +$34 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $32 $38 +$6 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $33 $31 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $33 $16 −$17 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 26? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$64 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $28 +$20 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $53 +$47 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $64 +$36 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $42 +$58 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $84 +$16 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $39 −$35 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$13 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $37 +$63 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 −$20 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $34 +$66 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $61 +$39 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $71 −$66 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $39 −$34 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $61 +$39 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $65 +$35 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $74 +$26 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $63 −$49 -78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $34 +$66 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $45 +$28 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $16 +$14 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$54 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $77 +$23 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $32 −$21 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 −$23 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$18 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $135 +$45 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$68 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $47 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 −$25 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.85 · official $441.30 (match) · 946 history records