Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda55…1534 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$68
sports 6% +$153
crypto 3% −$49
world 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤90d 21 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -9.3%
all 21 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 29% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 29% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$61 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $60 $79 +$19 (+32%)
France to win the second half? Yes 56¢ 45¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$25 -44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$179 +321%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $147 −$126 -86%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $59 +$89 +152%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$33 -81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $41 −$29 -70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $822 +$469 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $236 −$233 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $210 −$209 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$38 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 57m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 59m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $54 26h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 27h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $147 31h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 41h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $59 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 44¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.25 · official $95.07 (match) · 44 history records