Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda54…f995 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 24% −$25
politics 10% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
world 3% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage140d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $440 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $836 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $619 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $271 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $782 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $386 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $880 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $293 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 28h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 38h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 42h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1457 history records