Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda54…9c16 sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$1
other 25% −$9
politics 17% −$2
economics 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 163 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 151
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage174d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $33 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $60 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $96 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $27 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 7h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 12d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 12d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $23 19d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $23 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $27 27d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $27 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 43d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $31 129d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $31 129d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 95¢ $30 129d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? BUY No 95¢ $30 129d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $31 129d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $31 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 129d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $33 129d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $33 129d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 129d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 129d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $33 129d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $33 129d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $28 129d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $28 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $29 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $29 129d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $9 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 94¢ $17 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 523 history records