Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda54…6ace sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$524 (-35%) realized −$525 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$413
other 34% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 28 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 29% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 29% -47.8%
10% -40.0% 29% -52.8%
15% -45.8% 29% -57.4%
20% -51.1% 29% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$46 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage110d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 13 $75 −$29 -38%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $250 −$156 -62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $30 +$35 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Mar 09 $40 +$37 +93%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $50 +$26 +52%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $27 +$48 +178%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 +$21 +212%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 07 $20 +$49 +246%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$83 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $91 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 50¢ $15 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $25 11h
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Bucks 33¢ $46 97d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 97d
Celtics vs. Spurs BUY Celtics 45¢ $94 99d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 20¢ $94 99d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 53¢ $250 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 99d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 45¢ $50 100d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 100d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 46¢ $23 100d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 100d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Suns 46¢ $30 100d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $40 101d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 101d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 101d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 101d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 101d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 101d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $27 101d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 27¢ $25 101d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 102d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 102d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 102d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 102d
Mavericks vs. Celtics SELL Mavericks $4 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.98 · official $90.98 (match) · 48 history records