Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda54…b8a1
sports · 1064 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$176 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$241 · open −$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$497
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses522 / 452
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions90
Markets (closed)974 / 1064
History coverage77d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 90 History 974 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days−$804
14 days+$213
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 82¢ 94¢ $43 $50 +$6 (+15%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 88¢ 92¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 44¢ 80¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+81%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 66¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+18%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 44¢ 99¢ $6 $15 +$8 (+125%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 83¢ 84¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 70¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 56¢ 88¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+57%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 69¢ 99¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Detroit Tigers 82¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Detroit Tigers 70¢ 97¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+39%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Under 53¢ 30¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) New York Mets 18¢ 69¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+286%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Over 78¢ 56¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-28%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 78¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 27¢ 96¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+254%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Over 69¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 30¢ 92¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+208%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Under 30¢ 40¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 56¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Baltimore Orioles 79¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Miami Marlins 58¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 89¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 −$3 -38%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $4 +$10 +252%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$12 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $41 +$52 +129%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $56 +$41 +73%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $94 +$238 +253%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $68 −$66 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $14 +$4 +26%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $19 −$4 -24%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $12 +$2 +17%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $34 −$24 -72%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $17 −$3 -18%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $13 +$7 +58%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $16 +$3 +20%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $13 −$12 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $11 −$2 -18%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $37 +$20 +55%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $13 −$3 -26%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 −$6 -30%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $19 −$5 -28%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $28 +$4 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $48 −$17 -36%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 −$4 -30%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $19 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$197
weather 2% −$42
other 1% +$4
politics 0% −$2
world 0% +$19
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) BUY San Diego Padres 83¢ $4 0m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 91¢ $5 1m
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $2 1m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 24¢ $2 1m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $2 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 7m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $2 7m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $3 7m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 92¢ $4 8m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 9m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $23 9m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 9m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 10m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 10m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 87¢ $4 14m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 21m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 22m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 22m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 22m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $2 23m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $3 24m
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 71¢ $3 26m
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 18¢ $2 27m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 37¢ $2 27m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 27m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) BUY New York Mets 80¢ $4 27m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 27m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $2 27m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $2 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 687 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 48% -12.8%
≤30d 940 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 974 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 47% -8.5%
all 974 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 47% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 38% -17.2%
15% -27.3% 28% -25.2%
20% -34.4% 22% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.02 · official $493.72 (match) · 3491 history records